California
While there is no suspense for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and appointed Sen. Alex Padilla (D), several Golden State House races are important in relation to determining the House majority. Republicans are polling well in the competitive districts and their early voting totals are much improved. Therefore, their fate in 2022 might be better than their typically poor performances here.
GOP Reps. David Valadao (R-Hanford) and Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) have tough redistricting draws, but most data suggests that Valadao is in a toss-up race, and Garcia appears slightly favored. Freshman Reps. Young Kim (R-La Habra) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) both have much different districts but are each at least slight favorites to win.
Democratic Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) didn’t fare particularly well in redistricting, but moving to retiring Rep. Jerry McNerney’s (D-Stockton) 9th District helps. He faces, however, a credible opponent in San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R).
The most competitive open seat lies in the state’s Central Valley as state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) and local businessman John Duarte (R) battle for a toss-up created district. The seat leans Democratic, but the voting history is better for Republicans. A GOP victory here would go a long way toward cementing a strong new majority.
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